WorkLore

What happens when you only have part of the information? What decisions do you tend to make?

I was challenged on this recently when someone explained to me the two types of errors we can make. They used the analogy that the weather forecast calls for 50% chance of rain. In this instance you have to make a decision and are prone to two types of error: 

Type one – take umbrella; doesn’t rain

Type two – don’t take umbrella; it rains

As explained in health more specifically: A type I error (false-positive) occurs if an investigator rejects a null hypothesis that is actually true; a type II error (false-negative) occurs if the investigator fails to reject a null hypothesis that is actually false.

I suppose this is a variation on the glass half full / glass half empty, but it got me wondering about the results. In this example, a type one error means you are carrying around an umbrella, which might be a minor inconvenience, but a type two error means you may get soaked, which could be an even bigger inconvenience and more effort to dry off afterwards. 

Of course in the example, take an umbrella and it does rain or don’t take an umbrella and it doesn’t, aligning your choice with the conditions is ideal. 

But we don’t always have the full information. So we’re often in the position of having to choose without knowing the outcome. 

How do you choose when it comes to making choices about people? To give them a chance? To hire them? To develop them? 

What’s your inclination?